The curtain of capacity removal in the electrolytic aluminum industry has been opened. In April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions launched a special act to liquidate and rectify illegal projects in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The special behavior focuses on four key contents, namely: enterprise self-examination (realized before May 15), local verification (realized before June 30), special spot check (realized before September 15) and urging rectification (realized before October 15).

Guoxin futures analyst Gu Fengda performance, "now has entered the third stage, that is, the special spot check period, considering that October 15 is the deadline for urging rectification, if strictly in accordance with the policy requirements, the electrolytic aluminum industry related to the removal of production capacity will enter a substantive stage. Aluminum market in the second half of the year is facing a policy critical window period." However, according to the reporter's understanding, while reducing production capacity, companies have not stopped their start-up work on new production capacity. Shanghai non-ferrous network data performance, last week in the sea aluminum market inventory inherited a new record high of 1.306 million tons.

At present, the market's attention is mainly focused on the promotion of production capacity policy. Liu Xiaolei, an aluminum industry analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Network Information Technology Co., Ltd., said that it is estimated that the supply of aluminum in the sea will still tend to be abundant in 2017, and the inventory of aluminum ingots is estimated to remain high in the first half of 2018. The surplus situation may rotate in the second half of 2018, provided that illegal production capacity and high-cost production capacity are inherited and withdrawn.

Some people in the industry believe that although the current aluminum inventory is high, the characteristics of the aluminum price policy market are very obvious. With the advent of the policy turning point, the fundamental turning point will also come as scheduled. In the medium and long term, the fundamentals of aluminum prices are optimistic, and the bottom of aluminum prices is hopeless. On August 3, the Shanghai Aluminum 1709 contract soared to 14850 yuan/ton, which was stronger than other base metals. After the risk of aluminum price decline in a short period of time was released, the willingness to stabilize and rebound remained.

At the same time, Shandong Province will limit the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, which will bring down energy in the later period and will also attract capital. On August 2, Shanghai's current aluminum transaction will be 14,200-14,220 yuan/ton, 150-140 yuan/ton for the current month, 14,200-14,220 yuan/ton for Wuxi and 14,230-14,250 yuan/ton for Hangzhou. The attitude of the cargo holders to ship slightly tightened, the middleman to receive goods is relatively active, the downstream enterprises high temperature production is limited, the purchase volume is limited.

As aluminum to capacity into the substantive stage, August 2, Chinalco shares rose. It is understood that Aluminum Corporation of China is the largest producer of alumina, primary aluminum and aluminum processing in China, as well as the second largest producer of alumina and the third largest producer of primary aluminum in the world. With the electrolytic aluminum price rotation before the decline, into the decline cycle, supply-side transformation policy is hopeless to make aluminum prices "to the next level".

"Recently, the market once again rumored that Hongqiao Aluminum will increase its production by 2.6 million tons by October 15, and aluminum prices will rise accordingly. Although the news has not been officially confirmed, it has received news from a foreign media that Hongqiao Aluminum will replace its production capacity by 2 million tons and maintain its production capacity at 6.5 million -7 million tons. According to today's news, supply-side transformation is not expected to increase production and shut down faster than expected. It is estimated that aluminum prices will fall in the second half of the year, but they will not soar like black." China Merchants Futures Institute of non-ferrous metals researcher Wang Xiaoqi accepted the "China Times" reporter interview performance.

Wang Xiaoqi performance, follow the EIA efforts continue to strengthen, in the consumption has not yet entered the peak season, inventory record high background, the market for inventory inflection point there is expected, news continued fermentation multi-head atmosphere is strong, and the fourth quarter of the north wrong peak production or will inherit the catalyst, a short period of time there is a decline in energy. Before reaching the healthy and green development of the aluminum industry, the pace of aluminum production capacity should not stop.